EU carbon price to be set at €73.5/tonne in Q3 2025, analysts say

The average price of EUA carbon allowances in the third quarter of 2025 will be €73.54/tonne, according to a poll of ten analysts surveyed by Reuters.This is lower than the expectations expressed in April for the same period – €76.1/tonne.US statements on trade tariffs have heightened concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in Europe, which could lead to a decline in industrial production and, consequently, a reduction in demand for carbon emission allowances.The average price forecast for the current year is €75.15/tonne (in April, €74.89/tonne was expected), for 2026 – €91.08/tonne, for 2027 – €108.7/tonne.

All analysts surveyed by the agency expect carbon prices to rise in the coming years amid a reduction in the emission cap for sectors under the ETS.Energy Aspects analyst Ben Lee noted that the market should tighten significantly from 2026, as both the auction supply and free allowances will decrease that year. In his opinion, investors should start taking this factor into account.Recall that carbon emission prices in the EU exceeded €70/t in June. The market during the specified period, in particular, reacted to fluctuations in energy prices, behavioral strategies of traders and expectations of new climate targets from the European Commission.The average price of the EUA contract for December 2025, according to ICE, was €73/t in June. It fell by 2.8% over the month.

 

Source: https:https://gmk.center/ua/news/cina-na-vuglec-u-ies-v-iii-kvartali-vstanovitsya-v-mezhah-e73-5-t-analitiki/