According to Vaisala meteorologist Brandon Fox, dry weather will persist for at least the next five days, which will allow even faster coffee bean harvesting. This has already affected traders' expectations. In particular, Ilya Byzov from Sucafina noted that the decline in quotes indicates a "significant decrease in the weather risk premium." At the same time, he does not rule out new price fluctuations in the event of an unexpected cold snap.Arabica prices have already fallen by more than 31% from their peak in February, driven by improved crop forecasts in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Preliminary reports suggest that the 2025 crop is recovering, with a higher proportion of large beans than in the previous season.Despite the decline in futures prices, the retail price of coffee remains high. This could lead to a 0.5% drop in global demand this year, according to Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities at Rabobank. Consumers in many countries are cutting back on coffee spending, choosing cheaper alternatives or reducing consumption.The coffee market is thus in an interesting situation: raw material prices are falling due to a good harvest, but the final product is not getting cheaper due to high logistics and operational costs.
Source: https://finteco.com.ua/article/19956-rynok-kavy-obvalyvsia-arabika-podeshevshala-do-minimu-za-sim-misiatsiv/
