Analytical company Barva Invest has updated its forecast for corn production in Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year. The expected yield has increased to 6.8 t/ha, and the total potential harvest — to 30.6 million tons. Despite local adverse weather conditions, the situation in the fields turned out to be better than expected at the beginning of the year.The most significant changes concern corn:
Production forecast — 30.6 million tonsExpected export potential — 25.3 million tons
Experts explained that the updated estimates were made possible by the revised sown areas and the adjustment of weather scenarios. It turned out that the weather conditions were less critical than expected in February, when models predicted the risk of prolonged droughts and heat in the Black Sea region.Spring and early summer were indeed cool, and summer confirmed the expectations of heat.
However, the most extreme weather events were concentrated in the south and southeast of Ukraine, while the north and west received better agroclimatic conditions. This allowed to increase the yield forecast from 6.4 to 6.8 t/ha, with the potential to increase to 7 t/ha under favorable weather in August.
The update of the forecast was additionally influenced by the data of the State Statistics Service, according to which the sown areas under early crops turned out to be smaller than expected, and under late crops - larger. In particular, the areas under corn increased, while under soybeans decreased. These changes confirmed the spring estimates of Barva Invest and allowed to return to the initial expectations after a temporary decrease in the forecast based on the interim statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture.
Source: https://landlord.ua/news/roslinnitstvo/v-ukrayini-pidvyshhyly-prognoz-urozhayu-kukurudzy-do-306-mln-t-analityky-ochikuyut-zbilshennya-eksportu-v-2025-26-mr/
