At the end of 2025, Ukrainian business expressed the best business expectations for December in the history of surveys. The business expectations index stood at 49.2 points, which is below the neutral level, but significantly higher than the indicators recorded a year ago. This is evidenced by data from the National Bank of Ukraine. Despite a noticeable annual recovery, enterprises are in no hurry to include a sharp revival in their forecasts. Business remains in a cautious mode due to military risks, unstable energy supplies, rising resource prices and personnel shortages.
Additional pressure is exerted by destroyed production chains and logistics, as well as the traditional slowdown at the end of the year. What keeps the economy from recession At the same time, enterprises recognize the presence of factors that prevent sentiment from entering a pessimistic phase. This is about stable domestic demand, the inflow of international financing, the leveling of price dynamics and stable food supplies. These are the factors, according to the NBU, that support the balance of expectations. The highest level of confidence is demonstrated by trade - its representatives have been positively assessing their own economic dynamics for almost a year in a row. In contrast, industry remains the most restrained. For this sector, energy risks and damaged infrastructure are of critical importance. The current level of the index indicates not a breakthrough, but the adaptation of the economy to long-term challenges. In Ukraine, business has learned to work in conditions of instability, but longer security horizons and predictable working conditions are necessary for the transition to sustainable growth.
Source: https://finteco.com.ua/article/29917-dilovi-ochikuvannia-biznesu-v-hr
