The Business Expectations Index (BEI) of enterprises in April-June 2026 increased to 107.0% from 105.8% in January-March, continuing growth for the second quarter in a row, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reports based on the results of a survey of company managers.
"In the second quarter of 2026, businesses expected a revival of business activity in the next 12 months. Respondents were more confident in expecting an increase in the production of goods and services and were positive about the development of their own enterprises," the regulator noted.
Survey participants improved their assessments of almost all components of the index, most of all - the total sales of their own products and investment expenditures on machinery, equipment and inventory. Enterprises in 17 regions and most types of activity expected a revival of business activity.
At the same time, after improving in the two previous surveys, businesses worsened their expectations regarding the future number of employees.
Military operations and their consequences remained the main factor limiting the ability of enterprises to increase production. The significant impact of the shortage of qualified workers remained, and among other factors, business most expected the strengthening of the impact of excessively high prices for raw materials and supplies.
Estimates of the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months improved for the second quarter in a row: the balance of responses increased to 7.6% from 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026.
An increase in production was expected by respondents from 11 regions, as well as enterprises in agriculture, energy and water supply, construction, transport and communications, processing industry and other activities.
Inflationary expectations of businesses strengthened: the forecasted annual inflation was 11.6% compared to 11.1% in the previous quarter. Military operations were named the most significant pro-inflationary factor by 80.6% of respondents.
According to the survey results, the expected average hryvnia exchange rate in the next 12 months will be 46.12 UAH/$1 and 54.42 UAH/EUR1 compared to 45.00 UAH/$1 and 54.00 UAH/EUR1 in the first quarter of 2026.
The assessment of the current financial and economic condition of enterprises has deteriorated somewhat: the balance of responses was -5.1% compared to -4.7% a quarter earlier. At the same time, expectations regarding the financial condition of their own companies in the next 12 months increased to 2.4% from 2.0%.
The most optimistic were construction enterprises, the most restrained were extractive industry enterprises.
Respondents were more confident in expecting an increase in product sales: the balance of responses increased to 18.4% from 14.5%, and regarding sales on the foreign market – to 17.0% from 15.8%.
Growth in total sales was forecasted by representatives of all types of economic activity, except construction, most notably agriculture and the processing industry.
Expectations for investment spending on machinery, equipment and inventory improved to 15.5% from 12.8%. The balance of expectations for investment in construction work remained positive for the second quarter in a row and increased to 2.1% from 1.6%.
Enterprises attracting foreign investment expected a more moderate growth in their volumes: the balance of responses decreased to 8.9% from 11.6%. The share of companies planning to attract foreign investment in the next 12 months decreased to 20.3% from 20.9%.
The balance of responses regarding the future number of employees deteriorated to -3.3% from -1.8% in the first quarter of 2026. An increase in personnel was predicted by enterprises in agriculture and other types of activity, while representatives of other industries expected its reduction, most of all in the processing industry.
The need for business in borrowed funds increased to 35.3% from 34.7%, and the share of enterprises planning to attract bank loans increased to 36.0% from 35.6%.
80.8% of potential borrowers preferred loans in hryvnia compared to 83.5% a quarter earlier. The main obstacles to attracting new loans remained excessively high interest rates and the availability of other sources of financing - 45.0% and 44.1%, respectively.
The assessment of the strictness of the conditions for access to bank loans increased to 13.9% from 11.4%. The share of companies planning to attract funds abroad remained at 6.6%.
The survey was conducted from April 30 to May 29, 2026 among managers of 665 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine.
Among the respondents: 20.9% - trade companies, 19.7% - processing industry, 14.3% - agriculture, 13.8% - transport and communications, 5.9% - mining industry, 5.0% - energy and water supply, 3.2% - construction, 17.3% - other types of activity. Large enterprises accounted for 30.5% of respondents, medium-sized - 36.7%, small - 32.8%.
Source of information: interfax.com.ua
