The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2026 from 1.3% to 1.8%. The regulator expects economic activity to pick up in the second half of the year due to increased budget spending, the development of defense production, and a better harvest. This was stated by NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshny during a monetary briefing.
What will support the economy
According to Pyshny, economic growth will be supported by a softening of fiscal policy, a large-scale economic effect from the localization of weapons production through international aid, as well as higher harvests than last year.
"These factors will contribute to the revival of economic activity in the second half of the year," the NBU Chairman noted.
The economy has returned to growth
According to the National Bank, real GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, after a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter.
According to the NBU, the improvement in dynamics was facilitated by the stabilization of the power system, increased budget expenditures, and reduced uncertainty about international financial assistance.
At the same time, the strengthening of Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure, energy facilities, and businesses, as well as the blockade of seaports, remain restraining factors.
Forecast for the coming years
The National Bank has maintained its economic growth forecast for 2027 at 2.8%. It is expected that this will be provided by investments in production capacity, stabilization of the energy sector, increased harvests, and stable consumer demand.
At the same time, the forecast for 2028 has been worsened from 3.7% to 3%.
Main risks
The NBU notes that the greatest risk to the economy and inflation remains the course of a full-scale war. In addition, the forecast may be affected by further developments in the Middle East.
The regulator also improved the forecast for nominal GDP. According to the NBU, in 2026 it will amount to UAH 10.065 trillion (previously UAH 10.030 trillion), and in 2027 it will amount to UAH 11.220 trillion, compared to the previously forecasted UAH 11.170 trillion.
Source of information: minfin.com.ua
