In February, business improved its assessment of its own economic activity, although it left it restrained, below the neutral level. The drivers of the positive impact on the expectations of enterprises of all sectors were the revival of domestic demand, increased production and an increase in the supply of goods. At the same time, the further shelling of critical infrastructure, increased business costs for labor, heating and electricity in the winter period, labor shortages, and inflationary processes remained restraining factors.This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BIA), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for the forced break in March-May 2022. In February 2025, the BIA was 46.9 compared to 41.0 in January 2025 and 47.5 in February 2024.
Industrial enterprises assessed the results of their current activities most optimistically due to the revival of consumer demand and the increase in production: the sectoral index in February crossed the neutral level and amounted to 50.2 (in January 2025 – 42.0, in February 2024 – 48.3). Respondents expected an increase in the volume of manufactured products, new orders for products, including export ones, and also softened their cautious assessments of the volume of work in progress, finished product residues, and inventories of raw materials and materials.
Trade enterprises significantly improved their assessments of their business activity due to the revival of domestic demand and sufficient supply of goods: the sectoral index in February was 49.2 (in January 2025 – 40.0, in February 2024 – 50.1). Trading companies increased their estimates of the volume of trade turnover, and, unlike the previous two months, were optimistic about the balance of goods for sale and the volume of their purchases. Respondents, as before, expected a decrease in trade margins.
Construction companies significantly softened, but maintained cautious assessments of current economic results, given the seasonality of construction work, a significant cold snap and labor shortage: the sectoral index in February was 44.7 compared to 37.2 in January 2025 and 43.7 in February 2024.
Source: https://aub.org.ua/104/bankivski-novyny/15085-biznes-pidvisiv-ocinki-rezultativ-svoei-dialnosti-pidsumki-opituvanna-pidpriemstv-u-lutomu
