Global iron ore prices remain under strong pressure due to falling finished steel prices in China and large-scale capacity expansions by key mining players. As UAprom reports in its article “Iron Ore Prices: New Challenges,” ore prices have fallen by a third in the past year and a half. Prices are expected to stabilize around $100 per tonne in 2025, but analysts do not expect a quick recovery.India is showing particularly ambitious expansion plans. Lloyds Metals & Energy Ltd (LMEL) has received new licenses for the Surjagarh deposit, which will allow it to increase production from 10 to 25 million tonnes per year. Tata Steel Ltd (TSL) is investing $1.18 billion in upgrading and expanding its Noamundi, Joda and Katamati mines, which will increase their total capacity to 55 million tonnes. State-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) has announced the creation of a separate mining structure to actively increase production.The statement by Vedanta Group Chairman Anil Agarwal, who at the end of April voiced the ambition to achieve 700 million tonnes of annual iron ore production in India, was a landmark. The UAprom article emphasizes that this is not only about domestic demand, but also about India's potential breakthrough into global markets. Indian companies, which export mainly low-grade Fe 57 ore, may displace some of the suppliers of Fe 62, including Ukrainian producers.In addition, Brazil's Vale plans to invest more than $12 billion in the development of the Carajas deposit, which will allow it to increase production to 200 million tons within five years. At the same time, the completion of the large-scale Simandou project in Guinea, controlled by the British-Australian Rio Tinto Ltd., is expected.Against this background, China, the largest consumer of iron ore in the world, is demonstrating a steady decline in demand. From 2020 to 2024, the country's steel production decreased from 1.065 billion to 1.005 billion tons. S&P Global predicts a further decline in 2025 - to 996 million tons.Thus, a situation is forming in the market where supply continues to grow and demand - to fall. All this creates conditions for a long period of low prices for iron ore, which threatens the profitability of mining in some countries and forces producers to look for new approaches to competition.
