Ukraine may increase corn exports in the 2026/27 MY, as weather conditions are expected to boost grain harvests despite fertilizer shortages caused by the conflict in Iran.
A snowier winter has increased soil moisture, which could lead to an increase in the Ukrainian corn harvest in 2026 to 32.6 million tons, which is 4% more than a year earlier. In this regard, next season (July-June), grain exports from Ukraine are likely to reach 26 million tons, which is 18% higher than the current season. Ukraine is the fourth largest corn exporter in the world and optimistic expectations for the next season remain, despite ongoing attacks on its port infrastructure and a sharp increase in fertilizer and energy prices, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz restricts supplies. The conflict has led to an estimated 20% fertilizer shortage for Ukrainian farmers this spring, with favorable weather conditions helping to mitigate the effects. Favorable weather, even without sufficient fertilizer, can still yield a very good harvest.
Ukrainian corn exporters are currently focusing on supplies to Indonesia, Egypt and Turkey to offset quota restrictions imposed by the European Union last year.
In addition, wheat exports from Ukraine are forecast to increase from 14 million tons to 16 million tons.
For comparison, the USDA estimates corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 MY at 23 million tons. Wheat exports are expected to be at 13 million tons.
Source: agronews.ua
