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Grain exports: how Ukraine's indicators changed during the war

Grain exports: how Ukraine's indicators changed during the war

Annual sales volumes of individual crops not only returned to pre-war levels, but in a number of cases even exceeded them.
In the first months after the start of the full-scale war in February 2022, grain supplies through seaports practically stopped. The situation changed after the launch of the "grain deal" in mid-summer, which made it possible to resume exports by sea. As a result, annual sales volumes of individual crops not only returned to pre-war levels, but in some cases even exceeded them.
In particular, corn exports in 2022 reached 24.98 million tons, which is 310 thousand tons more than in 2021. Supplies of rapeseed and safflower seeds increased by 450 thousand tons, and soybeans - by 890 thousand tons. Sunflower seed exports in 2022 were a record for the period under review, amounting to 2.75 million tons compared to 80 thousand tons a year earlier. At the same time, there was a decrease in other crops: wheat exports decreased by 44%, barley by 62%, oats by 65%, rye by 62%.
In 2023-2024, the trends were heterogeneous. Corn exports continued to grow and reached 29.62 million tons in 2024. Wheat supplies recovered to pre-war levels: more than 16 million tons in 2023 and 20.66 million tons in 2024. Barley exports increased to 3.38 million tons, but still remained below the 2021 level (5.66 million tons). Soybean exports increased significantly - to 3.43 million tons, which is more than three times higher than in 2021. Rapeseed and rapeseed supplies also increased - to 3.88 million tons.
Positive dynamics were also observed for oats and rye - their exports increased by 17 thousand and 4 thousand tons, respectively. At the same time, sunflower seed exports first returned to the 2021 level (about 800 thousand tons), and then decreased to 210 thousand tons in 2024.
Against this background, the decline in exports in 2025 was particularly noticeable. Corn supplies decreased by almost 40% - to 17.96 million tons, and wheat - by 34%, to 13.62 million tons. An even sharper decline was recorded for a number of crops: barley exports decreased by almost 53%, sunflower seeds - by more than 70% (to 60 thousand tons). The volumes of rapeseed and safflower seeds decreased by half - to 1.68 million tons, and rye exports fell almost a hundredfold - from 10 thousand to 100 tons.
The exception was soybeans: its exports remained at about the same level as the previous year. In addition, oat supplies more than doubled - from 20 thousand to 50 thousand tons.
The decrease in indicators in 2025 is explained by a combination of factors, including new Russian attacks on port infrastructure, increased competition in world markets, as well as the invasion of locusts.
Meanwhile, the State Customs Service of Ukraine published data for the first quarter of 2026. However, these figures refer to the previous agricultural season of 2025/2026 and reflect the impact of already formed negative trends. It will be possible to assess the results of the current export season closer to the summer.
Source: dengi.ua