Increasingly, food exports are used as a political tool, and trade conflicts, subsidies and other state decisions are changing established logistics routes. As a result, a “fragmented food system” is being formed, which may determine global trade processes in the coming years.State support for agriculture is growing in many countries, including the USA, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia. This keeps global supply high even at low prices, which could keep grain and oilseed prices moderate in 2026.In the US, soybean acreage is shrinking to a six-year low, while corn plantings are reaching record highs similar to those recorded in the 1930s. Brazil and Argentina are also ramping up production. In the absence of significant weather risks, analysts see no reason for a sharp rise in prices.Rabobank predicts a prolonged period of uncertainty, in which political decisions will affect the agricultural sector no less than economic and production factors. Significant price differences between regions are likely to persist due to tariffs and trade barriers, and a slowdown in the global economy could limit the growth of agricultural trade. According to forecasts, global GDP could decline to 2.7% in 2026.
Source: https://agroreview.com/content/agropolitics/geopolityka-vyznachatyme-svitovu-agrarnu-torgivlyu/
